What is a good marathon time? Obviously the answer
depends on several key factors. For many of us, just
finishing the marathon is enough. Sooner or
later though, we all try to set a time goal that
we can achieve. What this time goal should be
however, can be quite difficult to determine.
This article looks at the online marathon
predictor calculators as well as other factors
involved when you are setting your goal.
Marathon Time Calculators.
There are quite a few
online calculators that give you a predicted
marathon finish time based on your 10K or 5K
times. Here are a few:
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Test Results
I tested each of the above
predictors based on a sample 45-minute 10K finish time. Here are the results:
Runworks
|
3hrs 27 mins |
Runners World UK |
3hrs 27 mins |
Marathon Guide |
3hrs 29 mins |
Running times |
3hrs 31 mins |
Hal Higdon
|
3hrs 45 mins |
As you can see they are
all quite close to each other, except for Hal Higdon’s, which
is actually the one I prefer as being the most
realistic.
I don’t totally agree with the
calculators especially if you use a 5K time to
project your marathon finish time. It just
doesn’t work that way…otherwise everyone
would be meeting his or her marathon time goal!!
In reality there are too
many other factors that can affect your
time during the marathon. It doesn’t matter what
your 10K time was two months ago when you’re
totally out of energy at the 20 mile mark in the
marathon. That last 10K after the 20 mile point
in the marathon can easily add an hour
to your total time…
I’m not saying a 45 minute
10K can’t translate into a 3hrs 30 min marathon
time. It can – if everything else falls into
place.
Key Factors that will affect
your time are:
- Running ability and speed (This is
what most race predictors are based
upon)
- Your age
- Number of years you have been
running
-
Number of previous marathons
- Amount and intensity of your
training
- Recent injuries
- Marathon day weather
- The marathon course
So as you see, there are a lot of
things that can have an impact on your final
result. This is why normally fast
runners have a disappointing race.
They neglected to take into account
the other factors and set their
expectations too high.
So, how do you pick a realistic goal
for your next marathon…?
Don’t pick a
time!
Pick a time range! For example,
instead of 3hrs 40 mins, you might
select 3 hrs 35 mins – 3 hrs 45
mins. I always do this because it
has built-in flexibility, so you can
modify the time depending on race
conditions.
If you are trying to qualify for
Boston, then your qualifying time
should be at the upper end of your
target range times.
Use the Boston Marathon Qualifying times as your
benchmark
The Boston times are based on your
age, and assume you have a good base
of running experience. I would say
three years or more. You can use the
time as a basis for determining your
own goal.
AGE GROUP |
MALE |
FEMALE |
18-34 |
3hrs 10min |
3hrs 40min |
35-39 |
3hrs 15min |
3hrs 45min |
40-44 |
3hrs 20min |
3hrs 50min |
45-49 |
3hrs 30min |
4hrs 00min |
50-54 |
3hrs 35min |
4hrs 05min |
55-59 |
3hrs 45min |
4hrs 15min |
60-64 |
4hrs 00min |
4hrs 30min |
65-69 |
4hrs 15min |
4hrs 45min |
70-74 |
4hrs 30min |
5hrs 00min |
75-79 |
4hrs 45min |
5hrs 15min |
80 and over |
5hrs 00min |
5hrs 30min |
Adjust for the Key factors.
You might want to start with one of
the calculators’ results or your
Boston qualifying time, and then add
extra time to compensate. For
example if it’s a hilly course in
extreme (very hot or cold) windy
weather I would add 15 minutes (this
is only 34 seconds per mile slower!)
or more to my initial time estimate.
Your age is also a big factor; it’s
harder to put out a sustained effort
for 26 miles when you are 55 years
old compared to 40.
Turn it around!
Another way to approach your
marathon goal is to
decide a target time for yourself
(within your abilities) and then adjust
your training accordingly to meet
this goal. You still need to make
the adjustments for weather and
course though.
Conclusion.
The bottom line is to be realistic,
both about your abilities and the
marathon conditions. A fast 5K
doesn’t mean you can ‘ace’ the
marathon the first (or even second
or third!) time around. Running a
good marathon time requires:
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In the final analysis, you’ll be
much happier (and less likely to get
injured) finishing your marathon
within a realistic time
range, than failing to meet a faster
time goal.
In my
Marathon Race Strategies
report I talk more about adjusting
your time expectations on race day,
and how to run the race so you still
have energy reserves after the
20-mile mark.
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